Life on earth depends on water, and there is no substitute for it. The current assumption is that our basic needs for water — whether for drinking, agriculture, industry or the raising of fish will always have to be met. Given that premise（前提）, there are two basic routes we can go: more access to water or more engineering solutions (more dams, for instance).
Looking at the engineering solution first, a lot of my research concentrates on what happens to wetlands when you build dams in river basins, particularly in Africa. The ecology of such areas is almost entirely driven by the seasonal regime of the river, or rather, the pulse of the water. And the fact is that if you build a dam, you generally spoil the downstream ecology. In the past, such problems have been hidden by a lack of information. But in the next century, governments will have no excuse for their ignorance. The engineers ability to control water flows has created new kinds of unpredictability. Dams in Africa have meant fewer fish, less grazing and less agriculture — none of which were expected.
The challenge for the next century is to find new means of controlling water. Although GM technology will allow us to breed better dry-land crops, there is no market stimulation for companies to develop crops suitable for the micro-climates of the Sahel and elsewhere in Africa. Who is going to pay for research on locally appropriate crops in the Third World?
This brings us to the key issue in any discussion of water: money. In the next century, just consider the problems of water supply in Mexico City or Delhi. If you’re rich, you drink mineral water and may even have a swimming pool — yet millions in such cities can’t get safe drinking water. People talk about the coming water crisis. I believe we have one now. It is a water crisis for the poor.
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